The Week Ahead: 10/5 - 10/9

Monday, October 5

• 10:00 AM – ISM Services Index for Sept.
• 10:30 AM – Crude Oil Inventories

Tuesday, October 6

Wednesday, October 7

• 2:00 PM – Consumer Credit for Aug.
• 2:00 PM – Treasury Budget for Sept.
• ~4:00 PM – Alcoa’s Q3 Earnings

Thursday, October 8

• 8:30 AM – Initial Jobless Claims for week ending 10/03
• 8:30 AM – Continuing Jobless Claims for week ending 9/26
• 10:00 AM – Wholesale Inventories for Aug.
• 2:00 PM – House Financial Services Committee, Subcommittee on Housing and Community Opportunity Hearing: “The Future of the Federal Housing Administration’s Capital Reserves” Assumptions, Predictions, and Implications for Homebuyers”

Friday, October 9

• 8:30 AM – Trade Balance

My Take

Not much to get excited about this week which could mean volatility in the markets from the key employment data on Thursday. Last week’s negative sentiment and breaches of key technical levels in the S&P and Dow could mean we’re at the start of the next downturn, but the start of Q3 earnings with Alcoa this week will determine how steep of a downturn we’re likely to see.

I expect consumer credit to remain about the same for August with the end of “Cash for Clunkers” skewing the results. The real downturn in consumer credit will likely follow with September’s data.

I’ll be interested to see what comments come out of that Senate subcommittee hearing on Thursday. The FHA is the key to any kind of housing price stability and their reserve situation is frightening to say the least.