Tuesday, September 22, 2009

William Whites' "A Disorderly Unwinding" Indeed.

The Man Nobody Wanted to Hear. Global Banking Economist Warned of Coming Crisis. William White predicted the approaching financial crisis years before 2007’s subprime meltdown. But central bankers preferred to listen to his great rival Alan Greenspan instead, with devastating consequences for the global economy. White and his team of experts observed the real estate bubble developing in the United States. They criticized the increasingly impenetrable securitization business, vehemently pointed out the perils of risky loans and provided evidence of the lack of credibility of the rating agencies. In their view, the reason for the lack of restraint in the financial markets was that there was simply too much cheap money available on the market. To give all this money somewhere to go, investment bankers invented new financial products that were increasingly sophisticated, imaginative — and hazardous.

As far back as 2003, White implored central bankers to rethink their strategies, noting that instability in the financial markets had triggered inflation, the “villain” in the global economy. “One hopes that it will not require a disorderly unwinding of current excesses to prove convincingly that we have indeed been on a dangerous path,” White wrote in 2006.

In the restrained world of central bankers, it would have been difficult for White to express himself more clearly.

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